Műhelytanulmányok
Mate Kormos, Robert P. Lieli, Martin Huber
MKE-WP-39086
- Lieli Róbert
- 2024.12.30.
- Emberi erőforrás tanulmányok
- 2
We study causal inference in randomized experiments (or quasi-experiments) following a
2 x 2 factorial design. There are two treatments, denoted A and B, and units are randomly
assigned to one of four categories: treatment A alone, treatment B alone, joint treatment, or
none. Allowing for endogenous non-compliance with the two binary instruments representing
the intended assignment, as well as unrestricted interference across the two treatments, we
derive the causal interpretation of various instrumental variable estimands under more general
compliance conditions than in the literature. In general, if treatment takeup is driven by
both instruments for some units, it becomes difficult to separate treatment interaction from
treatment effect heterogeneity. We provide auxiliary conditions and various bounding strategies
that may help zero in on causally interesting parameters. As an empirical illustration, we
apply our results to a program randomly offering two different treatments, namely tutoring
and financial incentives, to first year college students, in order to assess the treatments' effects
on academic performance.
Keywords: causal inference, interaction, instrumental variables, non-compliance
JEL codes: C22, C26, C90
Bíró Anikó, Elek Péter, Prinz Dániel, Sándor László
MKE-WP-39077
- Bíró Anikó
- 2024.12.17.
- Emberi erőforrás tanulmányok
- 1
This paper studies tax evasion and the contribution-benefit link in the context of maternity benefits in Hungary. Earnings and employment patterns suggest pre-pregnancy underreporting, followed by formalization of some earnings and employment during pregnancy to increase benefits. Reported earnings in small, domestic, and less productive firms bunch at the minimum wage before pregnancy and the benefit-maximizing threshold during pregnancy. Using a policy reform, the paper shows that the size of the reporting response tracks changing reporting incentives. Increases in pre-childbirth reported earnings are partially sticky after maternity leave. The results indicate that linking benefits to contributions can reduce tax evasion and improve formalization.
- Bíró Anikó
- 2024.12.17.
- Emberi erőforrás tanulmányok
- 1
We estimate the impact of firm quality -- primarily measured by firm productivity -- on the health maintenance of employees. Using linked employer-employee administrative panel data from Hungary, we analyze the dynamics of healthcare use before and after moving to a new firm. We show that moving to a more productive firm leads to higher consumption of drugs for cardiovascular conditions and more physician visits, without evidence of deteriorating physical health, and, among older workers, to lower consumption of medications for mental health conditions. The results are robust to using alternative firm quality indicators based on firm-level wages and worker flows, and to controlling for firm size, individual wage and possible peer effects. The results suggest that more productive firms have a beneficial effect on the detection of previously undiagnosed chronic physical illnesses and on mental health. Plausible mechanisms include higher quality occupational health check-ups and less stressful working conditions.
Zsolt Darvas, Lennard Welslau, Jeromin Zettelmeyer
MKE-WP-39039
- konya9@gmail.com
- 2024.10.04.
- Makroökonómia
- 1
By consecutively applying the EU’s debt sustainability analysis through 2052, we find that EU countries must improve their primary balances during the initial four-to-seven-year adjustment period starting in 2025 and then maintain these balances at broadly stable levels. However, in most countries, fiscal adjustments in the non-ageing portion of the budget must continue and reach historically high levels. Risk factors may necessitate even greater adjustments, while policies could partially alleviate fiscal pressures. The implementation of EU country-specific recommendations related to labour markets, pension systems, and productivity has been limited, and these recommendations do not adequately address immigration and fertility-enhancing policies.
- konya9@gmail.com
- 2024.10.01.
- Makroökonómia
- 1
This paper investigates whether there have been time periods between 1999 and 2019 in Hungary when government spending has been self-financing, i.e., when the government has faced a fiscal free lunch. By self-financing, it is meant that government spending, initially financed by issuing bonds, does not lead to an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio due to improvements in the budget balance resulted in by stimulated economic activity. Some macroeconomists think that while government spending is arguably not self-financing in normal times, it could have become self-financing in the United States (US) during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) due to 1) stronger fiscal multipliers, 2) stronger hysteresis effects, and 3) lower interest rates than usually. This paper estimates the parameters of a simple model of debt dynamics on Hungarian data to study whether these arguments also hold for an emerging small open economy, like Hungary, in which fiscal multipliers are thought to be weaker, and where interest rates increased during the GFC. It is found that government spending has not been self-financing in the short run before the GFC (1999Q1–2008Q3), has been at the edge of being expected to be self-financing in the long run, but has not actually turned out to be. During the GFC (2008Q4–2012Q4), it cannot be excluded to have been self-financing in the long run, and might have already been self-financing in the short run, as well. However, these findings are much less robust than those for the US. Between the GFC and the COVID recession (2013Q1–2019Q4), government spending was not self-financing in the short run, but was expected to be self-financing in the long run.
István Kónya
MKE-WP-39031
- konya9@gmail.com
- 2024.09.27.
- Makroökonómia
- 1
This paper develops a model of immigration that encompasses different channels through which immigra tion impacts native wages. The framework incorporates a frictional labor market with different outside options for immigrants and natives, local demand conditions captured by relative prices, and capital-labor substitution. The model is calibrated on labor data for the four largest European Union economies, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. Three counterfactual scenarios are explored, where the adjustment speed of the capital stock and the sensitivity of domestic relative prices to immigration differ. Results shows that the impact of immigration on wages and wages inequality depends crucially on the latter factor, i.e. whether relative prices are determined by local vs. global conditions. In the former case, the migration pattern observed in the data has led to a non-negligible increase in native wage inequality. In the latter case, migration skewed towards the low-skilled has led to a (quantitatively small) decrease in native wage inequality, due to the lower wage bargaining power of immigrants who compete with native workers.
Árpád Stump, Szabó-Morvai Ágnes
MKE-WP-39027
- szabomorvai
- 2024.08.18.
- Alkalmazott közgazdaságtan, Emberi erőforrás tanulmányok
- 1
This study examines the impact of ambient air pollution on birth rates in Europe. We estimate the causal effect of air pollution on fertility by utilizing variations in wind speed and the number of heating days as instrumental variables for air quality. Our analysis encompasses 657 NUTS-3 regions, with each region having 2 to 6 years of observations between 2015 and 2020. Thus, our study is the first to extend this analysis to multiple countries, pollutants, and years. Our findings indicate that a one standard deviation increase in particulate matter concentration levels leads to a 5.1% decrease in birth rates the following year and an additional 5.9% decrease two years later. Moreover, a similar increase in air pollution has a more pronounced adverse effect on fertility in countries with lower GDP. Other pollutants have little role in shaping fertility outcomes. This result is important for environmental policies with limited resources.
Horn Dániel Kiss Hubert János Szabó-Morvai Ágnes
MKE-WP-39024
- Horn Dániel
- 2024.08.17.
- Emberi erőforrás tanulmányok
- 1
We study the impact of delayed school entry on the locus of control (LoC) among Hungarian students, using statutory cutoff dates for school enrollment as a plausibly exogenous variation. Our findings indicate a causal relationship between delayed school entry and an increase in internal LoC, with a policy effect of approximately one-tenth of a standard deviation for 8th-grade students, which corresponds to a one-third standard deviation effect for complier students. The policy implications of these findings are significant, providing evidence that delaying school start could serve as an effective intervention to enhance LoC among students, which is positively associated with many later life outcomes.
Judit Mokos, Zsóka Vásárhelyi, Zoltán Kovács, Adrienn Král, Hubert János Kiss, István Scheuring
MKE-WP-39020
- Kiss Hubert János
- 2024.08.05.
- Elmélet és kísérleti közgazdaságtan
- 1
Using different variants of the classic climate game, we investigate the role of competition and the source of endowment (windfall vs. earned). Participants completed a detailed personality test (including climate attitudes and economic preferences) before the experiment and were asked about their strategies afterwards. We find that competition did not significantly affect whether groups reached the target, even though the probability of achieving the common goal was lower in the presence of competition. Participants cooperated more when they had to earn the endowment. Based on the pre-experiment questionnaire, participants who viewed their personal actions as more important and effective in combating climate change were more likely to cooperate in the climate game, while the rest of the measured personality items did not exhibit a consistent pattern. Analysis of the post-experiment survey indicates that those who aimed to maximise earnings contributed less to the common pool. In contrast, those who believed the goal was achievable and aimed to achieve it contributed more to the common pool throughout the game.
- Szabó Morvai Ágnes
- 2024.07.29.
- Emberi erőforrás tanulmányok
- 1
In this study, we examine how parents’ educational aspirations for their offspring (referred to as parental preferences) are related to university attendance. Even after controlling for the cognitive abilities of the child, we document a considerable variation in parental preferences, which are, in turn, strongly associated with university attendance. Utilizing regressions based on machine learning techniques, we also find that parental preferences exert a large and significant effect on university
attendance, even when accounting for factors that influence parental preferences, including parental education, household characteristics, effort, expectations, and the child’s cognitive and non-cognitive abilities.