Műhelytanulmányok
Eric French, Attila Lindner, Cormac O'Dea,Tom Zawisza
MKE-WP-38967
- Eric French, Attila Lindner, Cormac O'Dea,Tom Zawisza
- 1
We estimate the impact of public pension incentives on labor supply far from the normal retirement age by exploiting Poland's switch from a Defined Benefit to a Notional Defined Contribution scheme for men born after 1948. Using the universe of taxpayers and this sharp cohort-based discontinuity in the link between current contributions and future bene ts, we estimate an employment elasticity with respect to the return to work of 0.44 for ages 51-54. We estimate a lifecycle model that matches these results. The model implies that the change in the contribution-bene t link from the reform increases employment among those in their 30s but decreases it at older ages, reducing overall labor supply across the lifecycle by two months.
Jonathan Cohen, Andrew C. Johnston, and Attila Lindner
MKE-WP-38964
- Jonathan Cohen, Andrew C. Johnston, and Attila Lindner
- 1
We use a panel of survey responses linked to administrative data in Germany to measure the depreciation of general skills while workers are unemployed. Both the reemployment hazard rate and reemployment earnings steadily fall with unemployment duration, and indicators of depression and loneliness rise substantially. Despite this, we find no decline in a wide range of cognitive and non-cognitive skills while workers remain unemployed. We find the same pattern in a panel of American workers. The results imply that skill depreciation in general human capital is unlikely to be a major explanation for duration dependence.
Giulia Giupponi, Robert Joyce, Attila Lindner, Tom Waters, Thomas Wernham, Xiaowei Xu
MKE-WP-38961
- Giulia Giupponi, Robert Joyce, Attila Lindner, Tom Waters, Thomas Wernham, Xiaowei Xu
- 1
We assess the impact of nationwide minimum wages on employment throughout the whole wage distribution by exploiting geographical variation in the level of wages à la Card (1992). We find a substantial increase in wages at the bottom of the wage distribution, while we detect a small, statistically insignificant negative effect on employment. Combining the estimated change in the wage distribution with a tax and benefit micro-simulation model, we show that the minimum wage generates considerable proportional income gains up to the middle of the household income distribution.
Giannis Fikioris, Siddhartha Banerjee, Éva Tardos
MKE-WP-38958
- Giannis Fikioris, Siddhartha Banerjee, Éva Tardos
- Elmélet és kísérleti közgazdaságtan
- 1
See at https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.08881
Giannis Fikioris, Eva Tardos
MKE-WP-38955
- Giannis Fikioris, Eva Tardos
- Elmélet és kísérleti közgazdaságtan
- 1
Carmen Arguedas, Hubert J. Kiss, Ágnes Pintér
MKE-WP-38951
- Carmen Arguedas, Hubert J. Kiss, Ágnes Pintér
- Elmélet és kísérleti közgazdaságtan
- 1
- László Csató
- Elmélet és kísérleti közgazdaságtan
- 2
Multi-stage tournaments consisting of a round-robin group stage followed by a knockout phase are ubiquitous in sports. However, this format is incentive incompatible if at least two teams from a group advance to the knockout stage where the brackets are predetermined. A model is developed to quantify the risk of tanking in these contests. The suggested approach is applied to the 2022 FIFA World Cup to uncover how its design could have been improved by changing group labelling (a reform that has received no attention before) and the schedule of group matches. Scheduling is found to be a surprisingly weak intervention compared to previous results on the risk of collusion in a group. The probability of tanking, which is disturbingly high around 25%, cannot be reduced by more than 3 percentage points via these policies. Tournament organisers need to consider more fundamental changes against tanking.
Kolos Csaba Ágoston, Sándor Bozóki, László Csató
MKE-WP-38944
- Kolos Csaba Ágoston, Sándor Bozóki, László Csató
- Elmélet és kísérleti közgazdaságtan
- 1
We consider clustering in group decision making where the opinions are given by pairwise comparison matrices. In particular, the k-medoids model is suggested to classify the matrices as it has a linear programming problem formulation. Its objective function depends on the measure of dissimilarity between the matrices but not on the weights derived from them. With one cluster, our methodology provides an alternative to the conventional aggregation procedures. It can also be used to quantify the reliability of the aggregation. The proposed theoretical framework is applied to a large-scale experimental dataset, on which it is able to automatically detect some mistakes made by the decision-makers.
László Csató, László Marcell Kiss, Zsombor Szádoczki
MKE-WP-38940
- László Csató, László Marcell Kiss, Zsombor Szádoczki
- Elmélet és kísérleti közgazdaságtan
- 1
Qualifications for several world championships in sports are organised such that distinct sets of teams play in their own tournament for a predetermined number of slots. This paper provides a reasonable approach to allocate the slots based on historical matches between these sets of teams. We focus on the FIFA World Cup due to the existence of an official rating system and its recent expansion to 48 teams. Our proposal extends the methodology of the FIFA World Ranking to compare the strengths of five confederations. Various allocations are presented depending on the length of the sample, the set of teams considered, as well as the frequency of rating updates. The results show that more European and South American teams should play in the FIFA World Cup. The ranking of continents by the number of deserved slots is different from the ranking implied by FIFA policy. We recommend allocating at least some slots transparently, based on historical performances, similar to the access list of the UEFA Champions League.