Műhelytanulmányok

Árpád Stump, Szabó-Morvai Ágnes

MKE-WP-39027

This study examines the impact of ambient air pollution on birth rates in Europe. We estimate the causal effect of air pollution on fertility by utilizing variations in wind speed and the number of heating days as instrumental variables for air quality. Our analysis encompasses 657 NUTS-3 regions, with each region having 2 to 6 years of observations between 2015 and 2020. Thus, our study is the first to extend this analysis to multiple countries, pollutants, and years. Our findings indicate that a one standard deviation increase in particulate matter concentration levels leads to a 5.1% decrease in birth rates the following year and an additional 5.9% decrease two years later. Moreover, a similar increase in air pollution has a more pronounced adverse effect on fertility in countries with lower GDP. Other pollutants have little role in shaping fertility outcomes. This result is important for environmental policies with limited resources.

Horn Dániel Kiss Hubert János Szabó-Morvai Ágnes

MKE-WP-39024

We study the impact of delayed school entry on the locus of control (LoC) among Hungarian students, using statutory cutoff dates for school enrollment as a plausibly exogenous variation. Our findings indicate a causal relationship between delayed school entry and an increase in internal LoC, with a policy effect of approximately one-tenth of a standard deviation for 8th-grade students, which corresponds to a one-third standard deviation effect for complier students. The policy implications of these findings are significant, providing evidence that delaying school start could serve as an effective intervention to enhance LoC among students, which is positively associated with many later life outcomes.

Judit Mokos, Zsóka Vásárhelyi, Zoltán Kovács, Adrienn Král, Hubert János Kiss, István Scheuring

MKE-WP-39020

Using different variants of the classic climate game, we investigate the role of competition and the source of endowment (windfall vs. earned). Participants completed a detailed personality test (including climate attitudes and economic preferences) before the experiment and were asked about their strategies afterwards. We find that competition did not significantly affect whether groups reached the target, even though the probability of achieving the common goal was lower in the presence of competition. Participants cooperated more when they had to earn the endowment. Based on the pre-experiment questionnaire, participants who viewed their personal actions as more important and effective in combating climate change were more likely to cooperate in the climate game, while the rest of the measured personality items did not exhibit a consistent pattern. Analysis of the post-experiment survey indicates that those who aimed to maximise earnings contributed less to the common pool. In contrast, those who believed the goal was achievable and aimed to achieve it contributed more to the common pool throughout the game.

Szabó-Morvai Ágnes (r) Kiss Hubert János

MKE-WP-39016

In this study, we examine how parents’ educational aspirations for their offspring (referred to as parental preferences) are related to university attendance. Even after controlling for the cognitive abilities of the child, we document a considerable variation in parental preferences, which are, in turn, strongly associated with university attendance. Utilizing regressions based on machine learning techniques, we also find that parental preferences exert a large and significant effect on university
attendance, even when accounting for factors that influence parental preferences, including parental education, household characteristics, effort, expectations, and the child’s cognitive and non-cognitive abilities.

Bíró Anikó, Boza István, Gyetvai Attila, Prinz Dániel

MKE-WP-39011

We study the role that firms play in social insurance benefit uptake after their workers experience health shocks. Social insurance in our setting, Hungary, is universal and comprehensive, thus allowing us to quantify the impact of firms on benefit uptake and labor market outcomes on top of the social safety net. Using matched employer-employee administrative data linked to individual-level health records, we find that firm responses to worker health shocks are heterogeneous: workers hit by a health shock at high-quality firms are less likely to take up disability insurance or exit the labor force than those at low-quality firms.

Economic decisions depend on economic expectations. Using Hungarian monthly survey data between 2000 and 2009, we show that the relationship between expectations (both at the macroeconomic and household levels) and socioeconomic status (SES), as represented by income rank and education level, is non-linear. In many instances, there is no significant difference in expectations between the two lower quintiles. However, individuals in the upper (fourth and top) quintiles exhibit significantly more positive expectations than those in the lower quintiles. There is also a clear difference in expectations between the fourth and the top quintiles. In terms of education level, individuals with a high-school degree have significantly more positive expectations compared to their peers without one. Significant differences in economic expectations are also observed between high-school graduates and individuals with a university diploma, particularly regarding inflation, savings expectations, and the assessment of the household’s future financial situation. Disparities in household-level expectations based on SES are more pronounced than those in macroeconomic expectations. Past experiences and household-level optimism seem to be key factors influencing macroeconomic expectations. Furthermore, we document that both macroeconomic and household-level expectations predict the intention for significant expenditures, even after controlling for SES variables.

Boza István, Reizer Balázs

MKE-WP-39003

A main driver of the gender wage gap is that women earn a lower firm-specific wage premium than men. We document the role of flexible wage components in driving both within-firm and between-firm gender differences in firm premia. For this purpose, we link wage survey data on performance payments and overtime to an administrative linked employer-employee dataset from Hungary. We find that the gender gap in firm premia is negligible at firms that do not pay either performance payments or overtime, while it is more than 11 percent at firms where all employees receive performance- and overtime payments. These patterns are also present when we control for differences in the labor productivity of firms or after composition differences are accounted for using AKM models. Finally, a decomposition exercise shows that performance payments and overtime payments contribute 60 percent to the gender gap in firm premia and 25 percent to the overall gender gap.

We study three basic welfare axioms for school choice mechanisms with a reserve or quota-based affirmative action policy, namely non-wastefulness, respecting the affirmative action policy, and minimal responsiveness, and show that none of the previously proposed mechanisms satisfy all of them. Then we introduce a new mechanism which satisfies these three axioms. This mechanism issues immediate acceptances to minority students for minority reserve seats and otherwise it employs deferred acceptance. We analyze the fairness and incentive properties of this newly proposed affirmative action mechanism and provide possibility and impossibility results which highlight the trade-offs.

Anikó Bíró, Cecília Hornok, Judit Krekó, Dániel Prinz, Ágota Scharle

MKE-WP-38973

Disability benefits are costly and tend to reduce labor supply. While spending can be contained by careful targeting, correcting past flaws in eligibility rules or assessment procedures may entail welfare costs. We study a major reform in Hungary that reassessed the health and working capacity of a large share of beneficiaries while leaving work incentives unchanged. Leveraging birthday and health cutoffs in the reassessment, we estimate employment responses to termination or reduction of benefits driven by income effects. We find that among those who exited disability insurance due to the reform, 60% were employed in the primary labor market, 3% participated in public works and 37% were out of work without benefits in the post-reform period. The consequences of exiting disability insurance sharply differed by pre-reform employment status. 80% of beneficiaries who had some employment in the pre-reform year worked in the primary labor market, compared to only 38% of those without pre-reform employment.

Anikó Bíró, Réka Branyiczki, Attila Lindner, Lili Márk, Dániel Prinz

MKE-WP-38970

We study the impact of a large payroll tax cut for older workers on employment and wages in Hungary. By exploiting administrative data and applying a difference-in-differences empirical strategy, we document a modest employment increase equivalent to a labor demand elasticity of -0.3 and a pass-through rate of 22%. These average effects mask large heterogeneity across different firms. Employment mainly increases at low-productivity, low-paying firms, while no jobs are created at high-productivity, high-paying firms. At the same time, the tax cut is passed through to wages only at high-productivity, high-paying firms, while low-productivity, low-paying firms do not share the benefits of the tax cut with their workers. These results point to important heterogeneity in the incidence of payroll tax cuts across firms, highlighting that workers at different firms benefit differently from payroll taxes. They also demonstrate that payroll taxes can have a significant impact on the composition of jobs in the labor market.

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