A közgazdaságtudományi közélet megújulásáért

Eric French, Attila Lindner, Cormac O'Dea,Tom Zawisza

MKE-WP-38967

We estimate the impact of public pension incentives on labor supply far from the normal retirement age by exploiting Poland's switch from a Defined Benefit to a Notional Defined Contribution scheme for men born after 1948. Using the universe of taxpayers and this sharp cohort-based discontinuity in the link between current contributions and future bene ts, we estimate an employment elasticity with respect to the return to work of 0.44 for ages 51-54. We estimate a lifecycle model that matches these results. The model implies that the change in the contribution-bene t link from the reform increases employment among those in their 30s but decreases it at older ages, reducing overall labor supply across the lifecycle by two months.